November 3, 2016 (The Washington Post) Whoever
wins Tuesday’s presidential election will face an assertive, aggrieved Russia
whose risk-taking behavior under President Vladimir Putin is increasingly
worrisome to U.S. experts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Mikhail Klimentyev/Pool
photo via Associated Press)
Today’s pushy, headstrong Russia presents a
paradox: By most measures, it is a country in decline, with a sagging economy,
an underdeveloped technology base and a shrinking population. Corruption
pervades nearly every sector. The collapse of the Soviet Union is still an open
wound, and many Russians blame the United States for taking advantage of them
during their years of decline.
Yet this inwardly weak Russia displays the
cockiness of a street fighter. It is waging war in Syria, Ukraine and
cyberspace with a seeming disdain for U.S. power. According to Director of
National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr., Russian hackers sought to
“interfere with the U.S. election process,” on authority of the highest levels
of the Russian government.
“Putin’s definition of risk-taking has evolved
in the direction of greater boldness and less attention to how it will affect
the U.S.,” argues Dimitri Simes, president of the Center for the National
Interest. “Putin thinks that American positive inducements are next to nonexistent,
and that the penalties are minimal, and will be imposed whatever he does.”
The next president must assess how to alter
Russian behavior without direct military confrontation. Is that best done by
cutting deals with Putin, as Donald Trump suggests? Or should it be a firmer
process of asserting U.S. power and interests, as Hillary Clinton has argued? This
may be the biggest national-security issue in the election. The full article is available at
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