Comedian leads in the polls

March 7, 2019 (EUobserver.com) According to recent opinion polls, Vladimir Zelenski, a comedian and leader of the Servant of the People party, named after his TV show, is far ahead of other candidates with around 23 percent of popular support.

Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister and presidential candidate in 2010 and the current president Petro Poroshenko tend to come second or third, depending on the poll.

Less successful candidates are Yuriy Boiko, former vice prime minister and minister of fuel and energy during the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, Anatoliy Hrytsenko, former minister of defence and a candidate that might be considered to represent a "democratic camp" without oligarchic backing and Oleh Liashko from the Radical Party. Polls suggest they will corner between six and 10 percent of support. The programs and public statements of these candidates are not elaborate on judicial reform or fighting corruption. In this respect, a coalition of civil society organizations has published a justice reform agenda with a list of questions, calling on the presidential candidates to outline their vision and plans.

Significantly, the majority of candidates did not disclose the sources of funding for their campaigns, although experts claim that the strongest candidates would have to invest some $80-90m [€70-80m], whereby half of this money will not appear in the campaign budget, as they are from shadow sources. At the same time, there are many indications that oligarchs are behind some of the candidates. Zelenski is believed to be linked to Ihor Kolomoisky, while Tymoshenko was seen meeting Viktor Pinchuk several times; Poroshenko has funding of his own, while Boiko is linked to Dmytro Firtash. Apart from the latter, these oligarchs are among the ten-richest Ukrainians.

The analysis of broadcasting on central TV channels belonging to these oligarchs confirms the links between certain candidates and oligarchs. In other words, in this electoral cycle we are unlikely to see a renewal of the political system, with politicians running with genuine reform agendas, rather than representing powerful economic interests. Yet, the pace of reforms will depend less on a particular candidate wining presidential elections and more on sustained civil society control and Western pressure. As the Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2018 Country Report on Ukraine put it, "although Ukraine made important breakthroughs in its reform process, thanks to progressive pressures from inside, below and outside, the achievements so far are not sustainable and need to be defended every day". It will only be through ongoing pressure and the daily hard work of reform-minded actors that a new president will be forced to take reforms seriously.