A ribbon with the colours of the Ukraine flag which symbolises the
revolution is placed at a road block at Kiev's Independence square on February
4, 2014. The crisis has sparked tensions between the West, which is considering
sanctions against Ukrainian officials, and Russia, which has accused the EU and
US of interference in Ukraine. AFP PHOTO / Angelos Tzortzinis
The United States and Europe may finally be ready to put some real
emergency aid on the table as part of an
effort to resolve the political crisis in Ukraine and to tie the country more
closely to the West. Without such an offer of financial support, Russia will
continue to have leverage to bully Ukraine into its geopolitical orbit. The
standoff over economic policy and whether Ukraine will ally with Europe or
Russia is more than two months old and has led to violent protests in which at
least six people were killed.
Details of the aid package are still under negotiation in Europe and the
United States, but there should be little doubt about the need. Ukraine’s
economy is on the brink of failure and its politics has been in turmoil since
the president, Viktor Yanukovych, rejected an economic pact with Europe in
favor of an offer from Russia for $15 billion in assistance. Russia, playing
hardball after Mr. Yanukovych announced plans to replace his cabinet to appease
protesters, last week suspended a portion of the aid and thus left an opening
for the Americans and Europeans to make their own offer.
The Western package is mainly intended as bridge financing to get a new
Ukrainian government, if one is formed, through a transition period so it can
make the sufficient reforms needed to qualify for a long-delayed loan from the
International Monetary Fund. The West is looking for a government of experts,
possibly led by an opposition leader.
There is undoubtedly risk because it is not at all clear that Mr.
Yanukovych and the opposition can find any basis for real compromise, or, if
they do, make it work over the long term. But the West needs to be even more
committed than Russia in offering Ukraine a compelling path forward. And it
needs to move quickly. Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy
chief, told The Wall Street Journal over the weekend that the package could
include not just money but loan guarantees, investment and currency
stabilization.
In the past two weeks, Vice President Joseph Biden Jr.; Chancellor
Angela Merkel of Germany; and José Manuel Barroso, the president of the
European Commission, the European Union’s executive body, have been in daily
and rotating contact with Mr. Yanukovych.
It was reassuring to hear Secretary of State John Kerry tell a security
conference in Munich over the weekend that “nowhere is the fight for a
democratic, European future more important today than in Ukraine” and to affirm
that the United States and Europe “stand with the people of Ukraine in that
fight.” That will mean providing the parties in Ukraine with whatever mediation
and support might be useful.
During the Munich conference, Mr. Kerry met with Ukrainian opposition
leaders as did the German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Diplomatic
contacts are essential. But as long as the situation remains volatile, with the
potential for all-out civil war, the West must also be prepared to impose
sanctions on any party that uses force but especially the government. The Obama
administration has already revoked the visas of some Ukrainian officials and is
preparing other sanctions if needed. The Europeans have been far more reluctant
to threaten penalties, although, on Tuesday, Mr. Steinmeier raised the
possibility of sanctions.
Ukraine, one of the most important countries to emerge from the former
Soviet Union, is at a critical point. Mr. Yanukovych’s grip on power is slipping,
yet, even after offering the opposition some concessions, he is still playing
for time under the sway of Russian and Ukrainian hard-liners. The opposition
also needs to negotiate seriously on a way out of the current turmoil.
The New York Times
