8 July 2014 (BBC News Ukraine) Ukrainian government troops have made significant gains in recent days,
pushing pro-Russian rebels out of a string of towns in the east. The
rebels have retreated to Donetsk from Sloviansk, for weeks a powerful
symbol of their resistance to Kiev.
Ukrainian politicians say a fundamental turning point has been
reached in the conflict. But the experience of similar conflicts
elsewhere - with a regular army confronting paramilitary units -
provides no basis for such claims. Nobody has succeeded in defeating paramilitaries who are
embedded in a city, virtually turning its residents into a human shield -
the Americans did not win such a conflict in Mogadishu, Somalia, nor
did the Russians win in the Chechen capital Grozny. In such a situation a regular army cannot use its superiority
in heavy weapons over rebels - weapons such as armoured vehicles,
aircraft and artillery.
The army may manage - after huge efforts - to capture one
town, destroying it with heavy artillery, only to find that the rebels
have simply moved to another town. That town in turn has to be taken by
storm, and then the same thing happens in a third town. It appears that the same thing has happened now in the Ukraine conflict.
A bridge destroyed in the village of Novobakhmutivka
The pro-Russian separatists cannot continue the fight without support from outside. Their ammunition is running out, they constantly need new
weapons. And they need an inflow of so-called "volunteers" - and we know
where they come from. The fighters also need training - and somewhere to train. So in theory sealing the border with Russia could end the
conflict - but in reality Ukraine does not have sufficient forces to do
that. Whether or not Donetsk can be taken without large-scale damage depends directly on the strength of the defending rebels.We do not know exactly what numbers and equipment the rebels
have managed to concentrate in Donetsk. But fighting in a modern city is
always an army's nightmare. In 2003 the Americans were so daunted by the task of
assaulting Baghdad that they studied how the Russians stormed Grozny -
and that attack on the Chechen rebels was certainly no great success.
The rebels have set up defensive positions around Donetsk
The Ukrainian army will probably try to use its numerical superiority
- experts reckon that 30,000 regular troops are facing a maximum of
10,000 separatists. The logical tactic in conducting such a siege of Donetsk and
Luhansk would be to put the rebels under pressure simultaneously in
several places, forcing them to dissipate their energies. Igor Strelkov's response might well be to create mobile
groups of 200 to 300 fighters, equipped with mobile rocket launchers and
anti-tank weapons. The rebels will try to cut communications links to Donetsk,
to block the deployment of some 6,000 Ukrainian troops freed up by the
seizure of Sloviansk. Three bridges have been blown up on roads leading to Donetsk,
and Ukrainian troops will doubtless run the risk of rebel ambushes on
major roads. So far there is no clear answer to the question: which side
will be first to incur the local residents' hostility? The rebels, whose
appearance will be a signal of impending clashes? Or the regular
troops, whose use of heavy weapons will cause civilian casualties and
destroy homes? Either way, there is no early end in sight.
Sloviansk: Ukraine has reasserted control in what was a rebel stronghold
The Kremlin's position is of course crucial in this situation. Under the threat of more serious Western sanctions it appears
that President Vladimir Putin has rejected the idea of direct military
intervention disguised as a peacekeeping operation. Most likely the secret support for the rebels, through supplies of volunteers and arms, will continue. That support does not go far enough for those fighters who
want to attach south-eastern Ukraine to Russia - a part of Ukraine
already described by Kremlin propagandists as "Novorossiya" (New
Russia). The Kremlin will try to keep Mr Strelkov in Ukraine with his
followers, armed with Kalashnikovs. Otherwise they would stir up trouble
for Russia, armed and angry. So for now Moscow's goal will be to maintain controllable
chaos in Ukraine. That policy will also serve to show the Russian people
that any attempt at a Ukraine-style "colour revolution", any attempt to
get rid of the authoritarian state, will result in chaos and civil war.
